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OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO5
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 3:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Spiritloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 35 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xiao8 · 29 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 25 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
76%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 21 game
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 34 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 27 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 20 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Axe
Axesignature
Collapse · 18 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 170 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 125 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 442 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 524 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
252 picks · 336 bans
47%
Luna
Luna
251 picks · 346 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 250 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
239 picks · 402 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 72%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:28
LGD Gaming 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkAme
44% · 31 game40% · 34 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Batrider
BatriderXiao8
45% · 60 games51% · 30 games
Queen of PainTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of Pain
Underlord
UnderlordFaith_bian
47% · 19 games51% · 56 games
Sand KingCollapse
Sand King
Io
IoXinQ
58% · 32 games49% · 13 games
Vengeful SpiritMira
Vengeful Spirit
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
51% · 46 games59% · 55 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct27:12
LGD Gaming 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
57% · 54 games54% · 77 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierXiao8
42% · 112 games44% · 108 games
BatriderTORONTOTOKYO
Batrider
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
67% · 38 games50% · 58 games
Night StalkerCollapse
Night Stalker
Oracle
Oracley`
45% · 74 games55% · 28 games
Vengeful SpiritMira
Vengeful Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingXinQ
49% · 59 games48% · 66 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct33:16
LGD Gaming 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
50% · 76 games47% · 71 game
GyrocopterYatoro
Gyrocopter
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFaith_bian
56% · 20 games52% · 84 games
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierXiao8
51% · 138 games48% · 104 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
51% · 106 games48% · 78 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Bane
Baney`
55% · 40 games47% · 43 games
OmniknightMiposhka
Omniknight
Game 4prediction correct30:16
LGD Gaming 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
51% · 62 games53% · 65 games
Templar AssassinTORONTOTOKYO
Templar Assassin
Necrophos
NecrophosXiao8
41% · 9 games56% · 80 games
Ember SpiritYatoro
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFaith_bian
52% · 181 game49% · 98 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
42% · 124 games55% · 92 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Bane
Baney`
44% · 30 games52% · 71 game
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Series resultLGD Gaming 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4