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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
pLAnet · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 21 game
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 19 games
74%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 18 games
61%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 59 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 29 games
66%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 27 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 26 games
65%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 25 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
668 picks · 698 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
629 picks · 440 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1118 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
478 picks · 1009 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
472 picks · 1187 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
451 picks · 408 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
439 picks · 713 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
419 picks · 887 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total51% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:30
LGD Gaming 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcishiro
53% · 233 games50% · 130 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
46% · 330 games51% · 353 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Mars
Marsniu
45% · 171 game56% · 91 game
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixpLAnet
47% · 130 games52% · 332 games
ClockwerkMira
Clockwerk
Silencer
Silencery`
47% · 321 game54% · 279 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed27:18
LGD Gaming 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenshiro
52% · 147 games46% · 176 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Doom
Doomniu
51% · 295 games60% · 60 games
RazorCollapse
Razor
Huskar
HuskarNothingToSay
53% · 46 games46% · 398 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Techies
TechiespLAnet
50% · 222 games54% · 285 games
ClockwerkMira
Clockwerk
Undying
Undyingy`
47% · 291 game44% · 82 games
OracleMiposhka
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct32:16
LGD Gaming 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawniu
52% · 320 games54% · 107 games
Naga SirenYatoro
Naga Siren
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
52% · 209 games54% · 178 games
Queen of PainLarl
Queen of Pain
Clinkz
Clinkzshiro
54% · 52 games52% · 253 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
43% · 155 games44% · 393 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
48% · 432 games50% · 237 games
UndyingMiposhka
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 51%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3