OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Undyingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Elder Titansignature
y` · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 29 games
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 29 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 24 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
Sand Kingsignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 20 games
Team Undying
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
389 picks · 168 bans
Hoodwink
352 picks · 127 bans
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 348 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 527 bans
Lina
254 picks · 408 bans
Winter Wyvern
251 picks · 242 bans
Luna
247 picks · 327 bans
Puck
238 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 75%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Undying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:43
LGD Gaming 41%Team Undying 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Undying — the game was taken by Team Undying in 35:10.
Game 2prediction missed27:31
LGD Gaming 41%Team Undying 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Undying — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:47.
Game 3prediction missed19:38
LGD Gaming 41%Team Undying 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Undying — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 56:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Undying · 59%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3