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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 17 games
35%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
60%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 15 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
y` · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 14 games
36%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
pLAnet · 13 games
46%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 17 games
65%
Techies
Techies
Sneyking · 14 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Aui_2000 · 13 games
31%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Sneyking · 13 games
38%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 13 games
62%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Skiter · 12 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Sneyking · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 401 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
230 picks · 110 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 321 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 452 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
212 picks · 308 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
196 picks · 506 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
192 picks · 158 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
191 picks · 397 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:33
LGD Gaming 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:05:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEmo
44% · 94 games57% · 78 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPyw
45% · 124 games61% · 78 games
Earthshakerbryle-
Earthshaker
Weaver
Weavershiro
44% · 56 games60% · 52 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Dark Seer
Dark Seerniu
46% · 149 games62% · 45 games
ChenWhitemon
Chen
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
39% · 156 games48% · 326 games
RubickImmersion
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed30:43
LGD Gaming 50%Tundra Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 54:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristlebackshiro
47% · 34 games51% · 63 games
KunkkaTimado
Kunkka
Dazzle
DazzleEmo
49% · 32 games57% · 21 game
Wraith Kingkasane
Wraith King
Enigma
Enigmaniu
56% · 63 games29% · 34 games
Windrangerbryle-
Windranger
Tiny
TinyPyw
54% · 240 games64% · 54 games
Dark WillowImmersion
Dark Willow
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
37% · 37 games48% · 234 games
TuskWhitemon
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2