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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 18 games
72%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
81%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 14 games
71%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ame · 8 games
63%
Tinker
Tinkersignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
88%

Vici Gaming

Weaver
Weaversignature
Pyw · 18 games
61%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ELeVeN · 17 games
35%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Victoria · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pyw · 13 games
38%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Victoria · 11 games
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
ELeVeN · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
465 picks · 311 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
427 picks · 528 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
377 picks · 566 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 512 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
300 picks · 494 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
279 picks · 518 bans
51%
Wraith King
Wraith King
258 picks · 346 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
253 picks · 116 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 39%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total90% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:20
LGD Gaming 76%Vici Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
49% · 260 games54% · 236 games
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
47% · 236 games54% · 199 games
TidehunterIrving
Tidehunter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFaith_bian
48% · 157 games55% · 215 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXinQ
48% · 156 games47% · 230 games
HoodwinkYds
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
Grimstrokey`
45% · 301 game53% · 230 games
BaneVictoria
Bane
Game 2prediction missed18:40
LGD Gaming 78%Vici Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
58% · 221 game54% · 194 games
Tinypoyoyo
Tiny
Kunkka
KunkkaNothingToSay
47% · 153 games49% · 225 games
RazorXm
Razor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
52% · 56 games48% · 158 games
HoodwinkYds
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
47% · 205 games44% · 73 games
ViperIrving
Viper
Bane
Baney`
50% · 175 games51% · 160 games
ClockwerkVictoria
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct25:9
LGD Gaming 76%Vici Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
41% · 122 games54% · 173 games
Tinypoyoyo
Tiny
Necrophos
NecrophosFaith_bian
56% · 54 games51% · 97 games
Sand KingIrving
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 226 games51% · 182 games
InvokerXm
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritXinQ
49% · 135 games52% · 96 games
HoodwinkYds
Hoodwink
Bane
Baney`
52% · 261 game47% · 250 games
GrimstrokeVictoria
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 90%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3