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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 27 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
KJ · 22 games
55%
Bane
Banesignature
KJ · 18 games
61%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 13 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Thiolicor · 12 games
58%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 34 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 32 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ame · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Ame · 18 games
39%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
504 picks · 351 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
359 picks · 423 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
344 picks · 615 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 471 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 597 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
307 picks · 341 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 166 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 215 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 31%
Hero pool strength55% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:31
LGD Gaming 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 59:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYuma
62% · 89 games57% · 59 games
LinaAme
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
50% · 199 games46% · 263 games
UnderlordXxs
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTopson
45% · 380 games51% · 511 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThiolicor
49% · 548 games44% · 339 games
Rubickfy
Rubick
Undying
UndyingKJ
44% · 128 games59% · 172 games
Treant ProtectorxNova
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct
LGD Gaming 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming.
Game 3prediction correct26:17
LGD Gaming 56%Xtreme Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
52% · 292 games42% · 431 game
TinyAme
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTopson
56% · 249 games45% · 52 games
LinaNothingToSay
Lina
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritYuma
57% · 13 games42% · 179 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
66% · 168 games40% · 111 games
MiranaxNova
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKJ
48% · 534 games51% · 483 games
Tuskfy
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 60%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3