Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atlantisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 455 bans
Mars
496 picks · 695 bans
Bane
463 picks · 288 bans
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 534 bans
Sand King
403 picks · 553 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 639 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 627 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Lilgun 50%Atlantis 50%
The model gave 50% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Atlantis in 30:21.
Game 2prediction missed29:14
Lilgun 50%Atlantis 50%
The model gave 50% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Atlantis in 30:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 50%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2