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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.

Yangon Galacticos

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
308 picks · 630 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
288 picks · 360 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
250 picks · 430 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
235 picks · 188 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
205 picks · 107 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
200 picks · 607 bans
61%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
196 picks · 391 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
193 picks · 228 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:23
Lilgun 65%Yangon Galacticos 35%
The model gave 65% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 45:56.
Game 2prediction missed37:19
Lilgun 65%Yangon Galacticos 35%
The model gave 65% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 29:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 65%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2