PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLLowProfilewin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Flameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LowProfile
No games played over 6 months.
Flame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
499 picks · 664 bans
Muerta
475 picks · 407 bans
Batrider
463 picks · 592 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 566 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 518 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 795 bans
Magnus
416 picks · 937 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% LowProfile
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% LowProfile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
LowProfile 53%Flame 47%
The model gave 53% on LowProfile — the game was taken by LowProfile in 35:58.
Game 2prediction correct19:39
LowProfile 53%Flame 47%
The model gave 53% on LowProfile — the game was taken by LowProfile in 41:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteLowProfile · 53%
Series resultLowProfile 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2