ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
M80win 2:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MMiranaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M80
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 26 games
Snapfire
Elmisho · 20 games
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 17 games
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 16 games
Muerta
payk · 16 games
Mirana
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
470 picks · 385 bans
Clockwerk
432 picks · 547 bans
Batrider
389 picks · 497 bans
Lion
387 picks · 203 bans
Gyrocopter
382 picks · 622 bans
Phoenix
373 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
341 picks · 876 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Mirana
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
M80 88%Mirana 12%
The model gave 88% on M80 — the game was taken by Mirana in 37:39.
Game 2prediction correct42:30
M80 88%Mirana 12%
The model gave 88% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 42:02.
Game 3prediction correct33:21
M80 88%Mirana 12%
The model gave 88% on M80 — the game was taken by M80 in 47:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 88%
Series resultM80 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3