OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs predictionMYM Yloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
M Y
Templar Assassinoften banned
Beebie · 4 games
Bane
LionaX · 3 games
Disruptor
LionaX · 3 games
Elder Titan
MyPro · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
KNP · 3 games
Shadow Demon
LionaX · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
KNP · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
LionaX · 2 games
Team SMG
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 13 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Moon · 13 games
Marsoften banned
kpii · 12 games
Tusksignature
AhFu · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 175 bans
Hoodwink
340 picks · 122 bans
Lina
269 picks · 484 bans
Luna
252 picks · 341 bans
Nyx Assassin
250 picks · 528 bans
Mars
249 picks · 416 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 312 bans
Terrorblade
233 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)21% vs 54%
Hero pool strength62% Team SMG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:33
M Y 25%Team SMG 75%
The model gave 75% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKNP
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Void SpiritBeebie
LinaMoon
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Lycankpii
54% · 58 games
Shadow DemonAhFu
38% · 34 games
BrewmasterRoddgeee
Game 2prediction correct23:41
M Y 26%Team SMG 74%
The model gave 74% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenKNP
Monkey KingMidOne
LinaBeebie
Storm SpiritMoon
BrewmasterLionaX
Vengeful Spiritkpii
52% · 71 game
PangolierRoddgeee
44% · 10 games
AlchemistAhFu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 86%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2