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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mad Kingsloss 1:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mad Kings

Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 22 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
PiPi · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Vitaly · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Elmisho · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
DaaD- · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 10 games
40%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Vitaly · 9 games
78%

Thunder Awaken

Doom
Doomoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 10 games
90%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Michael · 8 games
63%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 7 games
86%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 7 games
86%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Mjz · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ILICH- · 6 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mjz · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
484 picks · 517 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
447 picks · 217 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
407 picks · 671 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 623 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
333 picks · 774 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
323 picks · 328 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
318 picks · 521 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:20
Mad Kings 50%Thunder Awaken 50%
The model gave 50% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 1:02:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
51% · 37 games40% · 53 games
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
Phantom Assassin
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAdrx
49% · 29 games44% · 94 games
MarsILICH-
Mars
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOscar
64% · 84 games64% · 6 games
WarlockMjz
Warlock
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeGenek
57% · 3 games
Game 2prediction correct3:14
Mad Kings 44%Thunder Awaken 56%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAdrx
49% · 18 games63% · 121 game
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawPiPi
36% · 99 games55% · 141 game
Dark SeerILICH-
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordOscar
41% · 56 games59% · 230 games
Treant ProtectorMjz
Treant Protector
Rubick
RubickGenek
43% · 319 games
Game 3prediction correct7:28
Mad Kings 47%Thunder Awaken 53%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 25:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAdrx
52% · 39 games46% · 41 game
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritPiPi
41% · 47 games58% · 85 games
Dark SeerILICH-
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfireOscar
45% · 77 games59% · 49 games
OracleMjz
Oracle
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGenek
40% · 12 games
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 54%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3