ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MAG.Indonesiawin 2:1series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IHC Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MAG.Indonesia
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 8 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Silencer
Se · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Se · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 433 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 409 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
Lion
225 picks · 204 bans
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 633 bans
Vengeful Spirit
221 picks · 114 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
MAG.Indonesia 21%IHC Esports 79%
The model gave 79% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia.
Game 2prediction correct
MAG.Indonesia 21%IHC Esports 79%
The model gave 79% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports.
Game 3prediction missed
MAG.Indonesia 21%IHC Esports 79%
The model gave 79% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia.
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 79%
Series resultMAG.Indonesia 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3