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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MAG.Yololoss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Brightwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MAG.Yolo

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
czy · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
出省 · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
出省 · 2 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TrazaM · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
czy · 2 games
0%
Luna
Luna
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
100%

Team Bright

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Irving · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
TK · 8 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 8 games
25%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Irving · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linasignature
Ulu · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 741 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 625 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 746 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
378 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1025 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 733 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:43
MAG.Yolo 47%Team Bright 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerRA1NCLOUD
50% · 14 games54% · 50 games
Troll Warlordukiyo
Troll Warlord
Rubick
Rubickczy
39% · 33 games67% · 8 games
Witch DoctorTK
Witch Doctor
Disruptor
DisruptorTrazaM
47% · 11 games
Game 2prediction missed35:12
MAG.Yolo 47%Team Bright 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Bright — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo in 37:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerRA1NCLOUD
51% · 77 games48% · 103 games
Templar Assassinukiyo
Templar Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark Willowczy
50% · 79 games52% · 161 game
Shadow DemonTK
Shadow Demon
Tiny
TinyTrazaM
50% · 108 games
Game 3prediction correct14:34
MAG.Yolo 46%Team Bright 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoRA1NCLOUD
69% · 9 games44% · 85 games
Templar Assassinukiyo
Templar Assassin
Batrider
Batriderczy
51% · 55 games48% · 34 games
Ancient ApparitionTK
Ancient Apparition
Pugna
PugnaTrazaM
53% · 55 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 58%
Series resultTeam Bright 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3