Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Marlerino ESportsloss 0:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Matreshka Teamwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Marlerino ESports
No games played over 6 months.
Matreshka Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 306 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 256 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 509 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 553 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Marlerino ESports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Marlerino ESports 44%Matreshka Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 56%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1