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European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atlas Burdenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 14 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
44%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
25%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mitch · 7 games
43%

Atlas Burden

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
chempik · 6 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Hellscream · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hellscream · 5 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Hellscream · 5 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SSS · 5 games
20%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Panto · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 439 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
236 picks · 325 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
218 picks · 114 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
218 picks · 320 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
204 picks · 274 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
203 picks · 408 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
203 picks · 182 bans
48%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 531 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:20
MarsBet Team 52%Atlas Burden 48%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLukas
49% · 63 games51% · 53 games
RazorSSS
Razor
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritW1sh-
62% · 63 games48% · 26 games
Slardarchempik
Slardar
Abaddon
AbaddonMr. Luck
41% · 14 games44% · 121 game
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
53% · 71 game45% · 170 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireBignum
55% · 159 games
Game 2prediction missed13:33
MarsBet Team 51%Atlas Burden 49%
The model gave 51% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by Atlas Burden in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLukas
58% · 95 games50% · 110 games
Underlordchempik
Underlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainW1sh-
51% · 81 game49% · 187 games
Storm SpiritSSS
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawMr. Luck
48% · 160 games49% · 128 games
Keeper of the LightHellscream
Keeper of the Light
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBignum
52% · 138 games48% · 192 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
46% · 143 games
Game 3prediction correct34:23
MarsBet Team 51%Atlas Burden 49%
The model gave 51% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 47:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaLukas
48% · 29 games51% · 135 games
Void SpiritSSS
Void Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawMr. Luck
50% · 142 games53% · 28 games
Viperchempik
Viper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightW1sh-
59% · 119 games47% · 136 games
Monkey KingHellscream
Monkey King
Enchantress
EnchantressLeBronDota
44% · 125 games50% · 158 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Lion
LionBignum
50% · 42 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 52%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3