European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 14 games
Luna
Lukas · 13 games
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 13 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
MOUZ
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 19 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 16 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 13 games
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 708 bans
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 198 bans
Batrider
448 picks · 883 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 595 bans
Rubick
423 picks · 186 bans
Mars
414 picks · 665 bans
Pangolier
405 picks · 704 bans
Techies
405 picks · 317 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:27
MarsBet Team 35%MOUZ 65%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorRetsu
MarciUlnit
TimbersawStoneBank
Keeper of the LightSupream^
ZeusW1sh-
AxeForce
ChenLeBronDota
Iobengan
Dark WillowBignum
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Game 2prediction correct10:23
MarsBet Team 37%MOUZ 63%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 22:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingRetsu
BristlebackUlnit
RazorW1sh-
Templar AssassinSupream^
AxeStoneBank
ViperForce
Dark WillowBignum
BatriderNARMAN
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Iobengan
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 76%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2