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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nightshadeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 11 games
27%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 10 games
50%

Nightshade

Lion
Lion
Kyzko · 6 games
17%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristleback
ChodΣX · 3 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kyzko · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 349 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 326 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 510 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 442 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
296 picks · 223 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
282 picks · 422 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
278 picks · 521 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MarsBet Team 68%Nightshade 32%
The model gave 68% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Game 2prediction correct
MarsBet Team 68%Nightshade 32%
The model gave 68% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 68%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2