DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Rest Farmerswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 24 games
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 14 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 11 games
Luna
Lukas · 10 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
362 picks · 579 bans
Mars
349 picks · 535 bans
Techies
347 picks · 273 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 335 bans
Batrider
328 picks · 673 bans
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Rest Farmers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MarsBet Team 41%Rest Farmers 59%
The model gave 59% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by Rest Farmers.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 59%
Series resultRest Farmers 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1