European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team_Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Skywrath Mage
Jeezy · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 4 games
Svenoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
Team_Team
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Crystallize · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
EcNart · 2 games
Axe
Infernal · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
252 picks · 299 bans
Dark Willow
246 picks · 111 bans
Vengeful Spirit
231 picks · 246 bans
Treant Protector
213 picks · 459 bans
Phoenix
205 picks · 274 bans
Pangolier
201 picks · 411 bans
Earth Spirit
179 picks · 279 bans
Earthshaker
179 picks · 174 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Team_Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:19
MarsBet Team 52%Team_Team 48%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaOtaker
LunaCrystallize
Wraith KingMr. Luck
HuskarMoonlight
Nature's Prophetvelheor
DawnbreakerInfernal
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
TuskEcNart
Game 2prediction correct
MarsBet Team 54%Team_Team 46%
The model gave 54% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 54%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2