Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Not one step back gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 8 games
Rubick
Lagoona · 8 games
Ursasignature
Retsu · 8 games
Tinysignature
Lagoona · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
Disruptor
JANTER · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
Not one step back gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
717 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 491 bans
Beastmaster
444 picks · 1076 bans
Doom
427 picks · 742 bans
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1014 bans
Tiny
386 picks · 368 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 203 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 825 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Not one step back gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:24
Matreshka Team 48%Not one step back gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 33:21.
Game 2prediction correct21:38
Matreshka Team 48%Not one step back gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Not one step back gaming — the game was taken by Not one step back gaming in 44:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteNot one step back gaming · 52%
Series resultNot one step back gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2