PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MerkurX Teamloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
elegiawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MerkurX Team
No games played over 6 months.
elegia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
407 picks · 443 bans
Rubick
404 picks · 337 bans
Weaver
383 picks · 821 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 880 bans
Phoenix
357 picks · 723 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
327 picks · 491 bans
Dark Seer
293 picks · 670 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% MerkurX Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% elegia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MerkurX Team 37%elegia 63%
The model gave 63% on elegia — the game was taken by elegia.
Game 2prediction correct
MerkurX Team 37%elegia 63%
The model gave 63% on elegia — the game was taken by elegia.
Model check result
Model favoriteelegia · 63%
Series resultelegia 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2