DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Midas Club
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
4dr · 3 games
Mirana
Hyko · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hyko · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
FCR · 2 games
Techies
Hyko · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
Costabile · 2 games
Zeusoften banned
4dr · 2 games
AcatSuki
Mirana
Kiri · 3 games
Sven
NeKo · 3 games
Gyrocopter
Prada · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Tusk
Kiri · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 1 game
Dawnbreaker
Adrx · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Kiri · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 644 bans
Lion
384 picks · 355 bans
Mars
379 picks · 612 bans
Techies
375 picks · 306 bans
Batrider
357 picks · 777 bans
Vengeful Spirit
350 picks · 352 bans
Tiny
344 picks · 402 bans
Hoodwink
333 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Midas Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:27
Midas Club 56%AcatSuki 44%
The model gave 56% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Midas Club in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenCostabile
BatriderAdrx
Timbersaw4dr
PudgeNeKo
BristlebackFCR
Storm SpiritRobo-Z
Shadow DemonHyko
TinyKiri
Crystal MaidenWij
GrimstrokePrada
Game 2prediction correct43:29
Midas Club 57%AcatSuki 43%
The model gave 57% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Midas Club in 52:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaCostabile
Drow RangerNeKo
Primal Beast4dr
KunkkaRobo-Z
DoomFCR
TinyAdrx
HoodwinkHyko
ClockwerkPrada
Crystal MaidenWij
MiranaKiri
Model check result
Model favoriteMidas Club · 62%
Series resultMidas Club 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2