Midas Club vs Leviatan — prediction PW2S1ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Midas Clubloss 0:2

series probability

39%61%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Leviatanwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Midas Club

Crystal Maidensignature

Wij · 6 games

83%

Shadow Demonoften banned

Hyko · 4 games

75%

Techies

Hyko · 4 games

50%

Batrideroften banned

Wij · 3 games

Dragon Knightoften banned

4dr · 3 games

67%

Mirana

Hyko · 3 games

Timbersawoften banned

4dr · 3 games

33%

Windrangeroften banned

FCR · 3 games

33%

Leviatan

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Centaur Warrunner

426 picks · 695 bans

56%

Mars

404 picks · 653 bans

54%

Techies

402 picks · 324 bans

50%

Lion

394 picks · 361 bans

53%

Tiny

385 picks · 479 bans

55%

Batrider

384 picks · 848 bans

56%

Vengeful Spirit

360 picks · 359 bans

51%

Rubick

354 picks · 166 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%

Hero pool strength52% Midas Club

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total61% Leviatan

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct12:32

Midas Club 46%Leviatan 54%

The model gave 54% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 30:08.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo