Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Team Bald Reborn
Tusk
Pablo · 7 games
Rubick
Pablo · 5 games
Silencer
bengan · 5 games
Snapfire
ZipZaper · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
bengan · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
bengan · 5 games
Keeper of the Light
w33 · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
652 picks · 422 bans
Tusk
570 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
551 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
463 picks · 534 bans
Mirana
386 picks · 386 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
Death Prophet
334 picks · 511 bans
Clockwerk
333 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 22%
Hero pool strength55% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:41
Monaspa 78%Team Bald Reborn 22%
The model gave 78% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 33:51.
Game 2prediction missed39:44
Monaspa 78%Team Bald Reborn 22%
The model gave 78% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 1:08:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 78%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2