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CCT Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Montewin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team NextUploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 11 games
36%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
27%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
55%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 10 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
QBFY · 10 games
40%

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
so bad · 8 games
13%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 6 games
50%
Sven
Sven
7jesu · 6 games
17%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirage · 6 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
HappyDyurara · 5 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
VaniLLl · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 307 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
414 picks · 429 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 899 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
394 picks · 819 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 534 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
360 picks · 712 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
346 picks · 483 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 528 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% Monte
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Monte
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:15
Monte 57%Team NextUp 43%
The model gave 57% on Monte — the game was taken by Monte in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallize
48% · 53 games42% · 54 games
Broodmotherzvёzd
Broodmother
Dark Seer
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
45% · 77 games45% · 26 games
Phantom Assassin7jesu
Phantom Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
37% · 22 games54% · 125 games
DoomZipZzzap
Doom
Elder Titan
Elder TitanEcNart
54% · 69 games52% · 148 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
59% · 132 games
Game 2prediction correct27:24
Monte 57%Team NextUp 43%
The model gave 57% on Monte — the game was taken by Monte in 25:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerCrystallize
59% · 130 games51% · 133 games
Troll Warlord7jesu
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
44% · 40 games50% · 195 games
Razorzvёzd
Razor
Primal Beast
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 115 games43% · 48 games
Queen of PainZipZzzap
Queen of Pain
Rubick
RubickQBFY
50% · 184 games41% · 129 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorEcNart
61% · 36 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMonte · 60%
Series resultMonte 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2