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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Moodeng Warriorsloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Moodeng Warriors

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jabz · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 4 games
75%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Jabz · 4 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Oli · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
423 · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Oli · 2 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JT- · 2 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 20 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mac · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 16 games
81%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
524 picks · 712 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
486 picks · 563 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
478 picks · 605 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 564 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
440 picks · 796 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
435 picks · 967 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
395 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:15
Moodeng Warriors 41%BOOM Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
49% · 120 games50% · 125 games
LinaMac
Lina
Abaddon
AbaddonJT-
41% · 20 games52% · 109 games
MedusaJaCkky
Medusa
Spectre
Spectre423
51% · 22 games50% · 133 games
Dark SeerFbz
Dark Seer
Batrider
BatriderJabz
49% · 213 games48% · 40 games
VenomancerJaunuel
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
47% · 204 games58% · 172 games
Nyx AssassinTims
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct13:21
Moodeng Warriors 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemist423
48% · 202 games51% · 263 games
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Dragon Knight
Invoker
InvokerAbed
55% · 176 games48% · 106 games
DawnbreakerFbz
Dawnbreaker
Mars
MarsJT-
47% · 235 games53% · 87 games
LinaMac
Lina
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJabz
50% · 92 games56% · 50 games
Bounty HunterTims
Bounty Hunter
Zeus
ZeusOli
43% · 131 game50% · 330 games
BatriderJaunuel
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 59%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2