Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KBU.USwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 436 bans
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 560 bans
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 481 bans
Storm Spirit
399 picks · 646 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 559 bans
Keeper of the Light
334 picks · 663 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MooN team 61%KBU.US 39%
The model gave 61% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team.
Game 2prediction missed
MooN team 61%KBU.US 39%
The model gave 61% on MooN team — the game was taken by KBU.US.
Game 3prediction missed
MooN team 61%KBU.US 39%
The model gave 61% on MooN team — the game was taken by KBU.US.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 61%
Series resultKBU.US 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3