Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empire Hopewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire Hope
Pudgesignature
krylat · 6 games
Iooften banned
antoha · 5 games
Viperoften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Alchemistoften banned
krylat · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 4 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
antoha · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
krylat · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
742 picks · 565 bans
Puck
531 picks · 1064 bans
Dawnbreaker
465 picks · 603 bans
Marci
431 picks · 772 bans
Snapfire
374 picks · 200 bans
Winter Wyvern
364 picks · 399 bans
Zeus
323 picks · 370 bans
Razor
321 picks · 630 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:16
MooN team 47%Team Empire Hope 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by MooN team in 38:04.
Game 2prediction correct27:46
MooN team 47%Team Empire Hope 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 45:34.
Game 3prediction correct7:27
MooN team 47%Team Empire Hope 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 22:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 53%
Series resultTeam Empire Hope 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3