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FISSURE Special · BO3
result vs prediction
Mosquito Clanloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Mosquito Clan

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
20%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Vitaly · 4 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshrac
PiPi · 4 games
0%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 12 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
27%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantress
xNova · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 792 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
451 picks · 322 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
442 picks · 680 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
427 picks · 775 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
406 picks · 877 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
403 picks · 385 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 530 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
389 picks · 1073 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Mosquito Clan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Mosquito Clan 26%OG 74%
The model gave 74% on OG — the game was taken by OG.
Game 2prediction correct
Mosquito Clan 26%OG 74%
The model gave 74% on OG — the game was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 74%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2