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CIS Battle 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 3:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 3:0
HULIGANIloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 15 games
53%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 12 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 12 games
83%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 12 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 11 games
82%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 11 games
55%

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 24 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 22 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Bb3px · 22 games
68%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 20 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
743 picks · 351 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 633 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
538 picks · 288 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 1180 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
432 picks · 259 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
430 picks · 467 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 705 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
381 picks · 244 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:16
Most Wanted 51%HULIGANI 49%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckniche
46% · 374 games43% · 314 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Morphling
Morphling423
50% · 263 games54% · 123 games
TidehunterBb3px
Tidehunter
Slardar
SlardarfortniteMan
51% · 176 games58% · 222 games
Monkey Kingerase
Monkey King
Lion
LionPonlo
49% · 191 game52% · 200 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Dazzle
DazzleRein
50% · 112 games48% · 257 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed32:19
Most Wanted 47%HULIGANI 53%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetniche
56% · 215 games48% · 256 games
Abaddonv1olent-
Abaddon
Meepo
Meepo423
50% · 24 games56% · 151 game
Primal Beasterase
Primal Beast
Marci
MarcifortniteMan
57% · 186 games47% · 232 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroRein
48% · 236 games50% · 201 game
PugnaRESPECT
Pugna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPonlo
43% · 241 game43% · 62 games
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct29:17
Most Wanted 51%HULIGANI 49%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
46% · 270 games51% · 307 games
Nature's Propheterase
Nature's Prophet
Faceless Void
Faceless Void423
59% · 69 games62% · 13 games
Chaos Knightv1olent-
Chaos Knight
Marci
MarcifortniteMan
53% · 138 games48% · 233 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroRein
49% · 249 games49% · 137 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Ringmaster
RingmasterPonlo
49% · 153 games45% · 189 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 53%
Series resultMost Wanted 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3