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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 1:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Peru Rejectsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 24 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 20 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 18 games
78%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 18 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 17 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Elmisho · 9 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Elmisho · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Michael · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 599 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
592 picks · 239 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
546 picks · 716 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 320 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
496 picks · 251 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 553 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
434 picks · 608 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
428 picks · 416 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 45%
Hero pool strength63% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Most Wanted 72%Peru Rejects 28%
The model gave 72% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted.
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 72%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1