DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedloss 1:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Ponlo · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 4 games
Void Spirit
niche · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
423 · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
706 picks · 344 bans
Disruptor
591 picks · 621 bans
Hoodwink
489 picks · 254 bans
Puck
407 picks · 1152 bans
Mars
400 picks · 681 bans
Tusk
398 picks · 255 bans
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 392 bans
Pugna
345 picks · 394 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:26
Most Wanted 34%Team Tidebound 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade423
Ursashiro
Pangolierniche
Sand KingEcho
SlardarfortniteMan
Axeniu
Bounty HunterPonlo
Cheny`
WarlockRein
HoodwinkpLAnet
Game 2prediction correct9:29
Most Wanted 38%Team Tidebound 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa423
Troll Warlordshiro
BristlebackfortniteMan
PuckEcho
Monkey Kingniche
Timbersawniu
DisruptorPonlo
TuskpLAnet
EnchantressRein
Jakiroy`
Game 3prediction correct9:29
Most Wanted 36%Team Tidebound 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade423
Ursashiro
SlardarfortniteMan
PuckEcho
Void Spiritniche
Tidehunterniu
TuskPonlo
Jakiroy`
SilencerRein
RingmasterpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 78%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3