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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cignal Ultraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 12 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 9 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 7 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 6 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
JaCkky · 6 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 6 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Fearless · 6 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 5 games
80%

Cignal Ultra

Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Abat · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jamesy · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Jamesy · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand King
Jamesy · 5 games
60%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Jamesy · 4 games
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Abat · 4 games
0%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Abat · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
451 picks · 189 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
372 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 580 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 864 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 303 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 242 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
304 picks · 424 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 25%
Hero pool strength59% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:3
Motivate.Trust Gaming 76%Cignal Ultra 24%
The model gave 76% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
48% · 37 games50% · 77 games
Monkey KingAbat
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritFearless
49% · 37 games51% · 95 games
LinaJamesy
Lina
Lion
LionQ
53% · 62 games
Snapfire
SnapfireLionaX
50% · 36 games
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Motivate.Trust Gaming 74%Cignal Ultra 26%
The model gave 74% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinFearless
60% · 52 games53% · 50 games
Phantom AssassinAbat
Phantom Assassin
Spectre
SpectreJaCkky
57% · 27 games40% · 220 games
PuckJamesy
Puck
Lion
LionQ
41% · 154 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLionaX
61% · 37 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 88%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2