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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 11 games
82%
Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 9 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 7 games
57%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 6 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
JaCkky · 6 games
83%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 5 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 5 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
Fearless · 5 games
80%

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 25 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Sand King
Sand King
Yopaj · 19 games
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
452 picks · 188 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 580 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
363 picks · 867 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 302 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
323 picks · 240 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
298 picks · 416 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 400 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:21
Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%Neon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
54% · 59 games52% · 38 games
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritFearless
54% · 84 games49% · 65 games
TimbersawEnryu
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQ
41% · 48 games52% · 37 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Abaddon
AbaddonLionaX
48% · 78 games55% · 78 games
MiranaSkem
Mirana
42% · 51 game
ViperJaunuel
Viper
Game 2prediction missed5:24
Motivate.Trust Gaming 59%Neon Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 20:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreJaCkky
45% · 63 games54% · 37 games
BristlebackNatsumi
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyFearless
43% · 140 games43% · 27 games
BroodmotherEnryu
Broodmother
Mirana
MiranaQ
57% · 99 games55% · 85 games
LeshracYopaj
Leshrac
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLionaX
50% · 136 games49% · 148 games
LionSkem
Lion
50% · 141 game
Nyx AssassinJaunuel
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 63%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2