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BTS Pro Series Season 8. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 18 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 15 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 11 games
91%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
boombell · 8 games
63%

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 28 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 28 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 16 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
366 picks · 170 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 123 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
265 picks · 455 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 519 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
250 picks · 347 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
240 picks · 411 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
236 picks · 244 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
234 picks · 328 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total53% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:30
Motivate.Trust Gaming 55%Neon Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
57% · 82 games44% · 37 games
Shadow FiendMikoto
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritFearless
52% · 100 games56% · 64 games
Lycan458
Lycan
Mars
MarsQ
44% · 187 games43% · 55 games
Brewmasterxiaoyu154
Brewmaster
Snapfire
Snapfireboombell
52% · 112 games47% · 213 games
PhoenixNARMAN
Phoenix
54% · 112 games
Elder TitanJaunuel
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct29:24
Motivate.Trust Gaming 54%Neon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
58% · 108 games44% · 32 games
Anti-Mage458
Anti-Mage
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritFearless
53% · 123 games43% · 38 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
Tidehunterboombell
53% · 152 games51% · 250 games
Marsxiaoyu154
Mars
Lion
LionQ
50% · 232 games52% · 160 games
MiranaNARMAN
Mirana
41% · 135 games
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 53%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2