BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Elder Titan
LionaX · 5 games
Lion
Q · 4 games
Clockwerk
Q · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Snapfire
Q · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Omega Esports
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 10 games
Tiny
Tino- · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 971 bans
Lion
370 picks · 200 bans
Mars
362 picks · 585 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
294 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 218 bans
Death Prophet
281 picks · 628 bans
Void Spirit
272 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)87% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:29
Motivate.Trust Gaming 54%Omega Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingJaCkky
MagnusTino-
Death ProphetFearless
Storm SpiritKen
TuskQ
AxeSam_H
Ancient ApparitionLionaX
Nyx Assassincml
Game 2prediction correct20:40
Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%Omega Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 47:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 56%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2