Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RSGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lion
boombell · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 13 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Gyrocopter
JaCkky · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Q · 6 games
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
462 picks · 303 bans
Queen of Pain
423 picks · 527 bans
Weaver
374 picks · 557 bans
Mars
369 picks · 509 bans
Kunkka
293 picks · 492 bans
Spirit Breaker
271 picks · 509 bans
Wraith King
257 picks · 347 bans
Snapfire
254 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)16% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% RSG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:33
Motivate.Trust Gaming 62%RSG 38%
The model gave 62% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by RSG in 37:29.
Game 2prediction missed51:20
Motivate.Trust Gaming 62%RSG 38%
The model gave 62% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by RSG in 35:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 62%
Series resultRSG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2