Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTeam Mysteryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Clockwerk
Q · 3 games
Elder Titan
LionaX · 3 games
Lion
Q · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
Abaddon
LionaX · 1 game
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
405 picks · 986 bans
Void Spirit
348 picks · 523 bans
Mars
346 picks · 566 bans
Grimstroke
338 picks · 339 bans
Death Prophet
332 picks · 700 bans
Lion
319 picks · 177 bans
Tusk
303 picks · 225 bans
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 81%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect