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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
55%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 11 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 10 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 10 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 9 games
56%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 19 games
58%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 19 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 749 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 697 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
431 picks · 345 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 554 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 903 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
402 picks · 177 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
MOUZ 57%1w Team 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
60% · 82 games39% · 202 games
TimbersawCloud
Timbersaw
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
59% · 76 games46% · 81 game
RazorNande
Razor
Doom
DoomForce
53% · 214 games39% · 62 games
LinaChira JUNIOR
Lina
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNARMAN
62% · 53 games43% · 77 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
55% · 161 game44% · 164 games
Lionswedenstrong
Lion
Game 2prediction missed12:26
MOUZ 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenUlnit
51% · 137 games48% · 84 games
LunaNande
Luna
Lycan
LycanForce
62% · 31 game45% · 77 games
RazorCloud
Razor
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
53% · 94 games47% · 91 game
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
47% · 154 games50% · 35 games
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
Oracle
Oraclebengan
52% · 44 games50% · 173 games
DisruptorRESPECT
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct39:11
MOUZ 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
57% · 208 games42% · 149 games
Templar AssassinChira JUNIOR
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomForce
50% · 352 games49% · 104 games
LunaNande
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
51% · 235 games49% · 296 games
PangolierCloud
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
53% · 298 games46% · 400 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Bane
Banebengan
51% · 66 games52% · 210 games
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 62%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3