DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
3 penguins 2 ruinersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
Thiolicor · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
BOOM · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 10 games
3 penguins 2 ruiners
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 699 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 234 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
247 picks · 250 bans
Marci
244 picks · 618 bans
Dark Willow
242 picks · 103 bans
Pugna
242 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% 3 penguins 2 ruiners
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 80%3 penguins 2 ruiners 20%
The model gave 80% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 80%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1