?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 28 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 27 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 26 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 24 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
43%

4Pirates

Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
54%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 11 games
55%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
485 picks · 420 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
445 picks · 522 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 541 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
437 picks · 564 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 231 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 773 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 581 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 427 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:30
MOUZ 59%4Pirates 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLowskill
42% · 64 games57% · 51 game
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Doom
DoomForce
43% · 228 games46% · 184 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Tiny
TinySupream^
46% · 305 games54% · 152 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockFly
40% · 18 games56% · 53 games
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Shadow Shaman
Pugna
Pugnaxsvampire
53% · 139 games58% · 314 games
Clockwerkariel
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed15:38
MOUZ 61%4Pirates 39%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLowskill
47% · 46 games49% · 231 game
Templar AssassinOtaker
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
43% · 269 games56% · 151 game
SniperNattyNarwhal
Sniper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
59% · 126 games48% · 150 games
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
46% · 212 games53% · 162 games
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
Ogre Magi
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
44% · 183 games56% · 142 games
Nyx Assassinariel
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 73%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2