?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chimera Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
17%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
bengan · 18 games
44%

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 13 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 9 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 9 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Panto · 7 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Panto · 7 games
86%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 7 games
86%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 6 games
83%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
422 picks · 341 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 378 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
355 picks · 184 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 445 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 582 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 815 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
333 picks · 526 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 80%
Hero pool strength68% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:21
MOUZ 34%Chimera Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLowskill
41% · 29 games46% · 72 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSupream^
52% · 76 games49% · 125 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackForce
51% · 138 games50% · 266 games
BatriderDaxak
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
48% · 220 games58% · 120 games
ChenPanto
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
46% · 204 games54% · 84 games
Nyx AssassinOneJey
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct11:35
MOUZ 35%Chimera Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 41:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLowskill
49% · 353 games58% · 214 games
MagnusTA2000
Magnus
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSupream^
46% · 81 game45% · 437 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Mars
MarsForce
49% · 289 games59% · 86 games
TidehunterDaxak
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
47% · 258 games51% · 87 games
LichPanto
Lich
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
42% · 223 games54% · 380 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct12:35
MOUZ 38%Chimera Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 27:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLowskill
58% · 162 games47% · 170 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSupream^
48% · 154 games49% · 163 games
MagnusTA2000
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
47% · 276 games50% · 124 games
DawnbreakerDaxak
Dawnbreaker
Lich
LichFly
54% · 105 games53% · 164 games
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Muerta
Muertaxsvampire
50% · 214 games46% · 290 games
BatriderOneJey
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 71%
Series resultChimera Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3