DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ffirebirdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
Thiolicor · 11 games
Undyingoften banned
BOOM · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 10 games
firebird
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 704 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
257 picks · 235 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 657 bans
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
Marci
244 picks · 624 bans
Pugna
244 picks · 254 bans
Dark Willow
243 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% firebird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:21
MOUZ 90%firebird 10%
The model gave 90% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 23:18.
Game 2prediction correct42:16
MOUZ 90%firebird 10%
The model gave 90% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 90%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2