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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 39 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 33 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 32 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 25 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 22 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 19 games
63%

Kalmychata

Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
33%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 3 games
33%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
smN · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Actor · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
468 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 728 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
435 picks · 599 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 426 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
381 picks · 689 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
378 picks · 165 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 969 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 693 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:13
MOUZ 68%Kalmychata 32%
The model gave 68% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerSupream^
little data50% · 47 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Pudge
PudgeUlnit
43% · 33 games51% · 136 games
DoomActor
Doom
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
50% · 133 games56% · 106 games
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Storm Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
53% · 115 games52% · 94 games
Weaverxsvampire
Weaver
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
44% · 145 games47% · 43 games
Treant Protectorantoha
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct35:9
MOUZ 67%Kalmychata 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoSupream^
46% · 48 games50% · 101 game
GyrocopterRetsu
Gyrocopter
Clinkz
ClinkzUlnit
57% · 41 game38% · 91 game
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
46% · 141 game56% · 76 games
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
Keeper of the Light
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
52% · 169 games55% · 115 games
Tinyxsvampire
Tiny
Warlock
Warlockbengan
55% · 32 games52% · 48 games
Oracleantoha
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 81%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2