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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO5
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 3:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 3:0
HULIGANIloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 14 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 12 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 10 games
80%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 10 games
60%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 15 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 767 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 705 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
435 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 572 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 917 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
416 picks · 187 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
405 picks · 196 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
MOUZ 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarSupream^
49% · 30 games48% · 87 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Sven
SvenUlnit
49% · 178 games53% · 287 games
PangolierBb3px
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
48% · 154 games43% · 193 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNARMAN
48% · 157 games52% · 101 game
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Batrider
Batriderbengan
51% · 343 games59% · 194 games
Crystal MaidenPanto
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct33:7
MOUZ 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
51% · 176 games51% · 236 games
Morphlingv1olent-
Morphling
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSupream^
47% · 118 games52% · 123 games
Invokerre1bl
Invoker
Tiny
TinyForce
46% · 252 games52% · 323 games
PangolierBb3px
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
49% · 244 games51% · 92 games
EnigmaPanto
Enigma
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
53% · 217 games48% · 233 games
Centaur WarrunnerOneJey
Centaur Warrunner
Game 3prediction correct30:6
MOUZ 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
48% · 166 games48% · 190 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaForce
51% · 121 game49% · 145 games
Windrangerre1bl
Windranger
Razor
RazorSupream^
49% · 166 games55% · 152 games
Dragon KnightBb3px
Dragon Knight
Bane
Banebengan
48% · 48 games48% · 148 games
GyrocopterPanto
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
50% · 266 games54% · 132 games
MiranaOneJey
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultMOUZ 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3