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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 9 games
78%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
44%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 10 games
40%
Puck
Pucksignature
erase · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
551 picks · 578 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
384 picks · 225 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 423 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 331 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 492 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 862 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
317 picks · 681 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
311 picks · 874 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:40
MOUZ 49%HULIGANI 51%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTimado
47% · 193 games44% · 117 games
Doomv1olent-
Doom
Leshrac
LeshracCopy
44% · 117 games58% · 157 games
Monkey Kingerase
Monkey King
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
50% · 120 games52% · 87 games
EarthshakerCorrupted
Earthshaker
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
44% · 203 games62% · 74 games
Naga SirenBb3px
Naga Siren
Pudge
PudgeJANTER
43% · 26 games53% · 224 games
Batriderslimeyao
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed28:12
MOUZ 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by MOUZ in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingTimado
55% · 311 games47% · 233 games
Queen of Painerase
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
51% · 299 games47% · 159 games
Abaddonv1olent-
Abaddon
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBOOM
49% · 268 games48% · 369 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
57% · 198 games46% · 427 games
Tuskslimeyao
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJANTER
47% · 221 game55% · 109 games
DisruptorBb3px
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct30:37
MOUZ 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCopy
49% · 163 games53% · 105 games
Ursav1olent-
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
45% · 287 games50% · 138 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixBOOM
48% · 278 games49% · 224 games
Monkey Kingerase
Monkey King
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSeleri
48% · 87 games58% · 103 games
ChenBb3px
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
51% · 78 games50% · 323 games
Tuskslimeyao
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 51%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3