?
arrow_backBack to match
BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nightshadeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 40 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 38 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 34 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 34 games
59%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 33 games
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 29 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 22 games
36%

Nightshade

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
waveformn · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 2 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
357 picks · 345 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
355 picks · 406 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 507 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 261 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
278 picks · 384 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 455 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:14
MOUZ 67%Nightshade 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendUlnit
53% · 12 games53% · 194 games
KunkkaChodΣX
Kunkka
Invoker
InvokerSupream^
57% · 41 game46% · 36 games
Skywrath MageKyzko
Skywrath Mage
Mars
MarsForce
51% · 101 game42% · 79 games
MarciKatari_
Marci
Tusk
Tuskbengan
54% · 87 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
49% · 68 games
Game 2prediction missed10:29
MOUZ 69%Nightshade 31%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nightshade in 26:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetUlnit
59% · 68 games45% · 96 games
MarciChodΣX
Marci
Razor
RazorSupream^
51% · 61 game51% · 131 game
SnapfireKyzko
Snapfire
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
50% · 134 games48% · 222 games
TuskKatari_
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
49% · 92 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkbengan
51% · 94 games
Game 3prediction correct24:20
MOUZ 67%Nightshade 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 46:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
54% · 97 games51% · 344 games
Centaur WarrunnerChodΣX
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSupream^
50% · 61 game49% · 22 games
Skywrath MageKyzko
Skywrath Mage
Doom
DoomForce
38% · 89 games65% · 38 games
OmniknightKatari_
Omniknight
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
38% · 9 games
Tiny
TinyNARMAN
40% · 148 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 80%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3