PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Gyrocopter
bengan · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 11 games
Sven
Ulnit · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 9 games
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 8 games
Leshracsignature
Supream^ · 8 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 8 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 722 bans
Mars
419 picks · 675 bans
Techies
415 picks · 333 bans
Lion
406 picks · 355 bans
Tiny
404 picks · 522 bans
Batrider
401 picks · 882 bans
Crystal Maiden
377 picks · 170 bans
Rubick
377 picks · 180 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Rest Farmers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:10
MOUZ 49%Rest Farmers 51%
The model gave 51% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:03.
Game 2prediction missed21:4
MOUZ 49%Rest Farmers 51%
The model gave 51% on Rest Farmers — the game was taken by MOUZ in 16:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteRest Farmers · 51%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2