European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 19 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 18 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 16 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 15 games
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
451 picks · 199 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 672 bans
Batrider
435 picks · 840 bans
Tiny
421 picks · 585 bans
Rubick
410 picks · 180 bans
Mars
387 picks · 627 bans
Techies
386 picks · 297 bans
Pangolier
384 picks · 674 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:9
MOUZ 70%Rest Farmers 30%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:08.
Game 2prediction correct31:34
MOUZ 70%Rest Farmers 30%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 55:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 70%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2